Analysis of upset matches in Overwatch League 2019: Part 2

In this section we will look at how the upset matches break down by team. We will attempt answer the question of whether certain teams are better at pulling off surprise wins, or worse for unexpected losses.

When we look at the league as a whole it does not matter who wins and loses, it can simply be recorded as an upset result. However looking at the data by team introduces two new categories for us to consider, upset wins and upset losses. This can also be applied to our upset factor calculation, giving each team both an upset win and upset loss factor.

Results

The number of matches played varies quite a bit between teams. Washington, Florida, and Paris only played 28, whereas San Francisco who played in every Stage Final and all the way to the Grand Finals played 41. For this reason all the results are expressed per match played so that no team has a higher result just because they played more matches.

Which team had the most upsets

The award (if it is something to be proud of) for the most upset matches goes to Chengdu Hunters and Houston Outlaws, with 41% of their matches going against expectations. London Spitfire are just one percentage point behind Houston and Chengdu, with all three rounding to 4 in 10.

However looking at the data further will show that this result means very different things for these teams.

Which team had the highest number of unexpected wins

The Chengdu Hunters (tied with the LA Valiant) score highest for number of upset wins, beating the odds in almost a third of their matches (28%). An honourable mention for the Guangzhou Charge, viewed throughout the season as something of a Chengdu-lite in terms of their play style, and they certainly showed that in their tendency to beat the odds.

For Chengdu I suspect it was their general unpredictability throughout the season as a whole, which allowed them to beat some of the best teams (Shock in Stage 3 and NYXL in Stage 4) on their best days.

For Los Angeles the reason behind this was their rocky (to put it mildly) start to the season leading on to a more respectable last few stages. By starting at a low seed and improving it meant that they were constantly beating the expectations of their seeding, giving them the upset wins.

While the Hunters and the Valiant were equal in number of upset wins, the Valiant scored the highest in terms of their upset win factor, an indicator of the magnitude of their unexpected wins.

This means while both teams achieved an equal number of surprise wins, LA’s victories were against relatively higher ranked teams, and so were that much more remarkable.

Which team had the highest number of unexpected losses

as we saw previously Spitfire and the Outlaws both ranked highly in terms of overall upset results but average in terms of upset wins. This unfortunately means that they both ranked ranked highly in terms of their unexpected losses.

Spitfire ranked the highest with 25% upset losses, with Houston and the Boston Uprising both recorded 24%, barely behind. Which means a quarter of these teams matches were losses that they would have been expected to win on paper.

Of these teams the Outlaws had the highest upset loss factor, the second highest of the season overall at 1.52, second only to Atlanta Reign at 1.72.

Atlanta’s story is unique in the league. over performing in stages 1 and 4 and under performing in the middle of the season. Coming into Stage 2 as as 5th seed and then losing to the 17th and 20th seed (Guangzhou and Los Angeles Valiant) helped to cement their place at the top of this metric.

Summary

Looking at this kind of data is a great way to identify and measure some of the the most interesting stories that develop across a season. Following the rise and fall of upstart teams beating the odds, or showing which teams failed to deliver on their high expectations.